Sunday, January 7, 2018

Impact of Demonetization on economy through lens of Transportation

A few months ago, I read the article on Livemint: When economists look to the sky ( Read full article if have time) . From this, I learned about new method find out by economists for the data.  In fact, The economic survey published by Government of India also used this method – Satellite data. Here economist used the observation from satellite data instead of the traditional data set. For Example, Satellite date form the bulb lumination at night reflect the ongoing economic activities. From such data, Economist evaluated the impact of the economic sanctions on the North Korea as the Home to Home data gathering in North Korea is not possible. Tus the indirect date might help to analyze the economic activities.

As A Student of the Transportation Engineering, I am well aware that Economic growth is closely linked with the transportation. If there is a dip in the Number of the coal wagons moving from Jharia-Mumbai, You can predict the lower economic growth in next quarter. Likewise, the Number of the Passenger Road trips, Air trips etc. Also linked with the Economic growth.

I made small efforts to evaluate the impact of the Demonetisation on the Economy through the lens of the transportation. Road trips data is not possible to get in Our country. Rail data is yet in the process so right now I use Air trip data only to evaluate the impact.

Methodology: - Choose 10 Routes, 5 Having commercial importance and 5 having the Tourist attraction. Choose routes in such way that include at least 1 route form every part of the country.

Growth measured on basis of the month . Means How much traffic increase/Decrease in the month of July 2016 Form July 2015, August 2016 to August 2015 and so on. Tourism and Commercial places have some particular hike/dip in some months and so the Use Month to Month comparison to remove seasonal impact.

 Impact on Commercial route:- Percentage change in traffic 


Ahm-Mumbai
Mumbai-Ahm
Surat-Delhi
Kolcutta-Chennai
Mumbai-Delhi
July
18.113
18.35
289.57
51.36
15.75
August
8.776
11.65
264.09
50.46
14.81
September
3.512
4.28
306.95
67.36
14.90
October
12.579
7.48
-15.98
66.09
41.92
Demonetisation
-6.356
-5.93
6.42
53.50
-0.34
December
-11.219
-12.81
37.71
92.73
8.06
January
-10.866
-10.96
66.95
63.97
11.39





Impact on Tourist Attractions:- Percentage change in traffic 

Ahmedabad-Goa
Delhi-Udaipur
Blore-Varanasi
Mumbai-Goa
Mumbai-Jammu
July
-30.49
97.51
138.34
21.51
130.30
August
-18.38
85.52
108.24
24.65
61.06
September
-13.61
106.47
13.59
12.15
25.11
October
32.16
143.70
54.37
22.29
50.25
Demonetisation
15.60
25.20
46.00
1.85
-6.19
December
32.64
26.25
78.95
7.07
5.32
January
36.54
34.67
134.01
9.67
13.54


Observations:-

  • On the commercial route, there is a massive dip in the air traffic. In 3 cases out of 5, the Growth went to negative.

  • On Tourist route, the Growth remained positive, The growth rate decreases significantly.

  • Though the tourist route Gained the growth momentum in short time, the Commercial route struggle for long time to regain growth, Many yet struggling.




( All Data Analysis based on the data of the DGCA) 

Friday, December 8, 2017

Opinion of Gujju voters

There is Much debate on the Development and Caste based politics. But The Gujju voters going to vote to party/candidate on the basis of the following issues.

Farmers:- Rahul Gandhi as CM candidate in Gujarat. Rahul ji demonstrated that the Potatoes can be converted into Gold and so Farmers hoping that Rahul Ji has the technology that can convert tomatoes into platinum and more.





Women:- Women Demanding the Smriti Irani as the CM candidate. Though Smriti ji is the Rajya sabha member from Gujarat, She spends more time in Amethi. Women of Gujarat not like any television daily soap after the Smriti ji Left Kyuki Saans Bhi Kabhi Bahu Thi. Women of Gujarat hoping that if Smriti ji become Chief Minister, They might get proper entertainment.



Engineering students:- They wish that new government should make mandatory tinder account to get admission with Aadhar. There are not enough professors in colleges and student have plenty of time to pass. So, Student believed that Tinder provides them a platform to good use of time to shape their social future after college life.




Businessmen:- They demand that the next government should make mandatory for the tax official to watch a movie Sholay once in every month. Businessmen want that tax official should properly understand that who is Gabbar Singh and how to implement GST.





Universal demand:- Government should remove all types of the GST on the Khaman and Dhokla. In addition, There shall be 50% subsidy on the Fafda and Jalebi. People believed that Fafda Jalebi gives energy to the body and it helps to boost up work efficiency of person to do work. So, There is a universal demand to remove tax and give subsidy to the Gujju Snacks.


Saturday, November 11, 2017

Pollution a poster boy of hypocrisy

National green tribunal ( NGT) become hero figure in Delhi today as the pollution become a villain in the life of the Delhiites. Everyone knows about the role and function of the NGT in Delhi from the school going kid to the senior citizen and this itself tell the story that how pollution becomes life and death matter for people.

I do not know much about the NGT and it’s proceeding. I know about NGT functions only through the media coverage. In that, I found that pollution issue in Delhi is a classic example of hypocrisy.


NGT on the Stubble burning 



NGT on the Construction and Industrial activities 


Yes, Stubble burning is the cause of the Pollution. But don’t the SUV cars? Yes, Construction work is the cause of pollution but don’t the Air condition offices? Bitter truth is that pollution is a problem created by the rich people and poor are a victim of that.

Farmers burn stubble causes it save some money for them which is matter of the life and death of the farmer. While the rich people travel in SUVs just cause it gives them comfort.  

Secondly, construction activity is the largest employment provider in India. NGT ban the construction work but they don’t think about the livelihood of the construction labor. Many children have to sleep without evening meal due to ban in construction activities. It's better if NGT ban the work in AC offices as it emitts CFC which is 20,000 more dangerous than Co2.


Elite polluter - suchak patel


 Earth is the common heritage of all of us. India as state accepted the principle of the “Per capita emission”. India is a third largest emitter of the Co2 but Indian per capita emission is very less than the global average as India having 2nd highest population. India refused to accept the burden of the climate reforms as India follows the principal of the "Common but differentiated responsibility".


Article in Brookings 

But when the domestic pollution issue comes, Indian policymakers become a hypocrite. The carbon footprint of the construction labor is much less than the carbon footprint of the rich people but it’s the poor which has to burden the climate reforms. 


Height of hypocrisy:- 

India is a poor country and cannot afford the costly Green technology.









ß India @ Global stage

                   Vs

 India  @ Domestically
à
Poor farmer has to embrace costly technology to process stubble.


Developed states outsource the polluting industries to developing and so west has to take more responsibility.
People working in service sector outsource polluting activities to farmers and labors but poor have to take more responsibility.


Developed state per capita emission is much more than poor Indian and so developed should take more responsibility.
Though the poor farmer carbon footprint is less they are being forced to take more burdens.




But, It’s not such that Only Indian are hypocrites. A human being is a naturally a self-interested animal and American are the top in that. During the last presidential campaign, Paris climate deal was the issue of the campaign. The Guardian ( Maybe ) survey showed that - More than 50% of the American do not consider the climate change is a matter of concern while more than 50% of American considered the pollution is concern issue though it’s pollution cause of climate change. The reason is simply that the climate change impact is not cogent while the pollution and smoke cause of accidents and it’s cogent. That’s why a Political commentator rightly note that – when the matter of the climate change, we all are scientists.


Likewise, a school going kid in Delhi considers the stubble burning as the cause of pollution as it cogent while he can not see that the SUV in which he is going to school is equally responsible for the pollution.

Wednesday, November 8, 2017

Exclusive interview with Mr.Finance minister


( Image source : https://www.sabhlokcity.com)


Pagal patrakar ( PP)  Sir, On last 8/11 you pushed the whole nation in black and today the black clouds covered the whole Delhi. What steps do you take?
Finance minister ( FM ) : Look, We are serious on both front – Black money and Pollution. We ordered the authorities to dump the Panama and paradise papers rather than burning it.


PP: It’s good to hear from you sir that you are aware of the issue of pollution. Sir, it’s said that every person in Delhi inhales the gases that equal to the 50 cigarettes. What do you want to say on that?
FM: Look, It’s all due to the pollution created by a citizen. What can a government do? At least we don’t impose GST of 28% on those 50 cigarettes you consume every day.


PP: Sir, Today is the anniversary of the Demonetisation. What is the biggest success of that?
FM: As per me the biggest success is that it created the force o the 5,00,00,000 new economist without paying a penny for their education. What can you ask for more than this?


PP: But sir people said that Demonetisation cause of the unemployment to many.
FM: PP just tell me how many millions joke you cracked on Demonetisation? Demonetization gives an employment to lakhs of the joke writers and cartoonists.


PP: Sir, Recently Indian express published the Paradise papers, What a preventive step you take to minimize such transactions.
FM: We asked the united nations( UN ) to link the bank accounts of all people with Aadhar number in the world.